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Combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) with at least three different drugs has become the standard of care for people with HIV (PWH) due to its exceptional effectiveness in viral suppression. However, many ART drugs have been reported to associate with neuropsychiatric adverse effects including depression, especially when certain genetic polymorphisms exist. Pharmacogenetics is an important consideration for administering combination ART as it may influence drug efficacy and increase risk for neuropsychiatric conditions. Large-scale longitudinal HIV databases provide researchers opportunities to investigate the pharmacogenetics of combination ART in a data-driven manner. However, with more than 30 FDA-approved ART drugs, the interplay between the large number of possible ART drug combinations and genetic polymorphisms imposes statistical modeling challenges. We develop a Bayesian approach to examine the longitudinal effects of combination ART and their interactions with genetic polymorphisms on depressive symptoms in PWH. The proposed method utilizes a Gaussian process with a composite kernel function to capture the longitudinal combination ART effects by directly incorporating individuals’ treatment histories, and a Bayesian classification and regression tree to account for individual heterogeneity. Through both simulation studies and an application to a dataset from the Women’s Interagency HIV Study, we demonstrate the clinical utility of the proposed approach in investigating the pharmacogenetics of combination ART and assisting physicians to make effective individualized treatment decisions that can improve health outcomes for PWH.

Although combination antiretroviral therapy (ART) with three or more drugs is highly effective in suppressing viral load for people with HIV (human immunodeficiency virus), many ART agents may exacerbate mental health‐related adverse effects including depression. Therefore, understanding the effects of combination ART on mental health can help clinicians personalize medicine with less adverse effects to avoid undesirable health outcomes. The emergence of electronic health records offers researchers' unprecedented access to HIV data including individuals' mental health records, drug prescriptions, and clinical information over time. However, modeling such data is challenging due to high dimensionality of the drug combination space, the individual heterogeneity, and sparseness of the observed drug combinations. To address these challenges, we develop a Bayesian nonparametric approach to learn drug combination effect on mental health in people with HIV adjusting for sociodemographic, behavioral, and clinical factors. The proposed method is built upon the subset‐tree kernel that represents drug combinations in a way that synthesizes known regimen structure into a single mathematical representation. It also utilizes a distance‐dependent Chinese restaurant process to cluster heterogeneous populations while considering individuals' treatment histories. We evaluate the proposed approach through simulation studies, and apply the method to a dataset from the Women's Interagency HIV Study, showing the clinical utility of our model in guiding clinicians to prescribe informed and effective personalized treatment based on individuals' treatment histories and clinical characteristics.